Balmy weather might spell trouble for maple syrup season

Many Canadians have been enjoying an unseasonably warm winter, but this might cause trouble for maple syrup producers.

El Nino usually has a negative impact on harvesting and production of maple syrup, said Sylvain Charlebois, a professor at the Food Institute at the University of Guelph.

"It wouldn't be surprising to see 2016 as being a very bad year when it comes to maple syrup production as a result of the warmer weather we've been having,'' said Charlebois. "I would say El Nino is affecting most if not all of the regions where maple syrup production is predominant.''

Those regions include Quebec, the world's dominant maple syrup producer, Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and American states like Vermont and New York.

READ: Canada’s maple syrup production drops

A mix of colder, sub-zero nights and warmer days above freezing are ideal syrup-producing conditions.

The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers, which has about 7,300 members, said the season is a few days earlier than usual in parts of the province. In contrast, the past two years have seen late starts.

Federation spokeswoman Caroline Cyr said the past five or six years have been "really, really good'' while 2006 and '07 were poor.

"We know it could happen again,'' she said. "It's really Mother Nature who decides what will be the production.''

Cyr said there is almost 56 million pounds of syrup in reserve and Quebec usually produces around 100 million pounds in a season.

"We have half of the harvest so we could supply the market if we had one bad season with no problem,'' she added.

READ: Inside Quebec’s maple syrup wars

Ray Bonenberg, who with his wife Carol Anne operates Mapleside Sugar Bush near Pembroke, Ont., said it's too early to start worrying about the season.

"Now the last two years, remember, were abnormally late,'' said Bonenberg, a spokesman for the Ontario Maple Syrup Producers Association, which represents about 550 members. "They were extremely cold and a lot of producers didn't get going till the end of March. We had two good years. It came in a hurry and you had to really hustle, but this year we knew it was going to be early.''

Louise Poitras, executive director of the N.B. Maple Syrup Association, says production is just getting under way in the southern part of the province, which represents about 20 per cent of the 400 producers. Meanwhile, producers in the north don't expect to begin boiling sap until the end of the month.

READ: Tapping into the maple water market

Charlebois said a poor season will put pressure on current supplies and may push prices higher next year.

"I suspect that next year prices will go up and how much it's hard to tell, but usually when you're dealing with a luxury product where demand really is, in Quebec in particular, an elastic you're likely going to see prices increase by as much as perhaps 10 or 15 per cent,'' he said.

Currently across the country a can of 540 millilitres of maple syrup sells between $7.50 and $10.

Bonenberg, who sells a litre of syrup for $23, says his costs for electricity, hydro, insurance and glass containers have increased.

"I expect prices to go up,'' he said. "It could be as much as five to seven per cent.''