High cost of food weighing on Canadians, with inflationary worries growing
Food affordability remains top of mind as Canadians expect their grocery bills to climb even higher in the coming year.
According to the spring edition of the bi-annual Canadian Food Sentiment Index by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, 79.7% of consumers said food prices have increased more than any other category in the past 12 months. While that’s a slight decrease from the fall 2024 index (84.1%), it still indicates “consistently high concern,” according to the report.
Meanwhile, perceived inflation in household items and supplies declined from 43% in the fall to 25.9% in the spring, suggesting either easing in the category or shifting consumer focus.
The index, supported by Caddle Insights, measures Canadians’ perceptions and sentiments on a wide range of food-related issues. More than 3,000 respondents are surveyed every six months, allowing researchers to track evolving trends and shifts.
While the inaugural report, released in October 2024, suggested Canadians believed the most severe impacts of food inflation had passed, the latest findings show renewed concern.
The percentage of Canadians who expect food inflation to exceed 10% over the next year jumped from 18.6% to 28.5%—a “dramatic shift in perception,” the report notes.
At the same time, expectations for inflation in the more moderate 2% to 4% range dropped significantly, from 27.6% to 20%, indicating declining optimism.
“People are quite concerned and when you talk about double-digit inflation, that’s significant,” says Sylvain Charlebois, professor in food distribution policy and senior director at the Agri-Food Analytics Lab.
According to Statistics Canada, inflation in grocery stores accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year in March, up from 2.8% in February. “The numbers from March weren’t necessarily reassuring,” Charlebois says.
Citing Statistics Canada data, the index highlights that monthly retail food sales per Canadian declined slightly from $312.98 in January 2024 to $311.16 one year later, while foodservice spending increased modestly from $191.54 to $198.73.
The report states that despite high food inflation during this period, the flat or modest growth in per capita food sales means that—in real terms—Canadians are buying less food per person today than they were a year ago.
Shifting strategies to save on groceries
With household budgets under pressure, Canadians continue to seek ways to stretch their food dollars. Nearly half of consumers (48.4%) are looking for more sales and discounts—up slightly from 48.2% in the previous survey.
Bulk buying is on the rise, with 13.7% of respondents opting for bulk foods compared to 10% in the previous survey.
“Bulk buying is the flavour of the month,” says Charlebois. “This is the one [cost-saving measure] people seem to be focused more on, compared to last fall. People want to build up inventory to offset some of the increases.”
More Canadians also report buying fewer non-essential foods (+1.2%) and cutting back on other purchases—such as clothing and electronics—to maintain food consumption (+1%).
The biggest drop in cost-savings measures is in the use of coupons (-0.6%), followed by shopping at cheaper stores (-3.4%) and buying fewer premium foods like meat or fruit (-2.7%).
Affordability still leads, while environmental concerns lag
When it comes to what drives food-purchase decisions, affordability continues to outweigh all other factors. In the spring survey, 42% of respondents ranked affordability as the most important consideration when buying food. This was followed by nutrition (25%) and taste (18%).
READ: Canadians are becoming more frugal, but they’re still willing to splurge on food
Other factors are much less influential. Availability (5%), social responsibility (3%) and environmental impact (2%) ranked lowest among decision drivers. And while affordability remains the top priority, it saw the largest decline since the fall 2024 index (-2.8%).
“People are still quite frugal… and we are expecting Canadians to be careful with their money as they visit the grocery store,” says Charlebois.
Buying local gains momentum
The spring index also shows that interest in local food continues to grow. Ten per cent of respondents say they are choosing local foods more often compared to six months ago, bringing the total to 43.5% who now make that choice always or often.
The report notes this uptick may reflect increased access to local foods in the spring, but also highlights that the survey took place during the start of the “buy Canadian” movement, which emerged amid growing uncertainty over U.S.-Canada tariffs.
READ: How grocery shoppers are standing up to the U.S.
Generational differences emerge when it comes to buying local. Gen Z leads all age groups, with 53.5% indicating they frequently buy local foods. Baby boomers follow closely at 50.5%, while Gen X (39%) and millennials (38.5%) show moderate engagement.
Trust in the food system is rising—cautiously
In tandem with the patriotic purchasing, consumer trust in grocery retailers is growing.
From fall 2024 to spring 2025, trust in all food institutions increased, with the largest gain seen for independent grocers. In the index, independent grocers’ trust score increased from 2.89 to 3.36 (with five being ‘strongly trust’ and one being ‘strongly distrust’). Major grocers saw an increase in their trust score, from 2.8 to 3.13, while Canadian food manufacturers jumped from 3.26 to 3.56. Canadian farmers remain the most trusted food institution, with a score of 3.9, up from 3.69.
“To me, ‘buy local’ may have been the driver behind a lift in consumer trust, which is certainly good news for everyone in the industry… but that increase, I think, is fragile,” says Charlebois. “It’s important for companies to reassure and remind Canadians why they should earn their trust overall. But it is good news.”
